thenextwave

Postcards as a workshop tool

Posted in articles, future, methods by Andrew Curry on 17 April, 2014

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As is often the case, I have a whole lot of half-finished posts waiting for some writing time to finish them.

So this short post is just to note that I have an essay [opens pdf] in the latest edition of the Journal of Futures Studies, co-written with Victoria Ward, on using postcards in workshops as a facilitation technique. One of the inspirations for the paper was Alex Pang’s essay on ‘paper spaces‘, which made complete sense to me but was, he once told me, surprisingly controversial.

Here’s an extract:

There is no precise workshop method: in practice it adapted to the specific requirements of the workshop. The approach has also shown itself to be fairly robust. Typically in the context of a futures workshop one would lay out 150 or so cards on a table, invite participants to form themselves into pairs or threes, then ask each group to select two, sometimes three, cards that express a story or a view about the particular future under scrutiny, and be willing, shortly afterwards, to tell that story to the other participants.

There are variations, but essentially this is it: a dialogue process that uses visual cues to open up different ways of seeing, of witnessing and conveying our own experience, and perhaps different types of insights, about the present and future. And more: a way of sharing fragments in such a way that small moments sometimes build to a larger and sometimes surprising narrative. In doing so, in our experience, they also create different types of narratives, different types of conversations, and a vivid body of language, image and material that can be incorporated directly into the next stages.

Some lessons from the Co-op

Posted in business, organisational by Andrew Curry on 22 March, 2014

The_Co-operative,_Balloon_Street,_Manchester

I’m reading Geoff Mulgan’s book The Locust and the Bee, a bit belatedly, and it provides a valuable lens through which to look at the Co-op affair. So, some quick notes on the affair, below the fold.

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Breaking the bank

Posted in banks, finance, politics by Andrew Curry on 17 February, 2014

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Anthony Jenkins, the retail banker who succeeded Bob Diamond as the Chief Executive of Barclays Bank, has rightly been criticised this week after the bank announced that it had increased its bonus pool when profits were falling and the bank is pushing through large cuts – 7,000 people – in retail banking. You judge a system by what it does, not what it says it does, and this decision spoke volumes – yelled it from the rooftops, really – about who benefits from the Barclays’ banking system.

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A bill of digital rights

Posted in digital, politics, technology by Andrew Curry on 15 February, 2014

gchq-bude-sianberry-cc-byIt’s taken some time – a surprisingly long time – but at last we’re seeing a political reaction from Britain’s civil society organisation’s to Edward Snowden’s revelations. Six organisations have launched a campaign that our security laws should be governed by six principles that are closely linked to the principles that underpin our notions of democratic government.

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China’s prospects

Posted in China, economics by Andrew Curry on 31 January, 2014

China 5576_5243a75446169-386x289Over at The Futures Company’s blog I have a post up about the challenges facing businesses – a look back at a Future Perspective we published on China a couple of years ago.

Here’s an extract about the country’s economic prospects:

“While the last three decades tell us that it’s unwise to bet against China fixing its problems, there are some big questions.

“One is about the effectiveness of the transition to a consumer economy, which needs significant institutional change if it is to work. This leads to a second question, of whether China’s market institutions are robust enough and trusted enough to support such a transition; this is almost certainly one factor behind the country’s anti-corruption drive. An important issue in this is openness: despite its huge internal market there will be doubts about how effectively China can modernize or innovate while it shuts off its internet from the world. The cost of managing its “Golden Shield” is said to be $1.6 billion to date.

“A third question is about the cost of unwinding or writing off stranded assets, whether they are ghost cities or the government’s cotton mountain, bought at prices well about the world market. There are also questions about the overall levels of Chinese debt, and whether a combination of asset bubbles, shadow finance, and bad debts throughout the country’s banking system could prompt a financial crisis. Finally, there are signs that the “Chimerica” system, under which Chinese savings bought American debt, and Americans then bought Chinese goods, is coming to an end.

“As Robert Gottliebsen argued recently in Australia’s Business Spectator:

China does not want to fund further US deficits and the US wants to reduce its deficits. And so the US-China model that has dominated the world is changing and Chinese consumers must be stimulated to replace the Americans. … The Chinese leadership understands this but changing the model will not be easy, particularly as the population is ageing. Japan tried a similar switch and failed.”

The image at the top of this post is from Wikimedia, and is used here, with thanks, under a Creative Commons licence.

Bringing it back home

Posted in economics, emerging issues, energy, scenarios, work by Andrew Curry on 25 January, 2014

????????????????????????????????????????An emerging trend toward re-shoring production is driven by energy costs, customer demands for shorter runs and more flexibility, and the way high-value knowledge is created.

A few years ago I wrote a set of scenarios - with Joe Ballantyne and Andy Sumner – on the prospects for the world economy to the early 2020s. In one of the scenarios we saw the “West” regenerate itself by a combination of public investment and by bringing home its high value manufacturing. After I’d drafted this post, David Cameron popped up at Davos to promote the idea of “re-shoring”, even if he seems less keen on the notion of public investment. And according to a recent report in The Conversation by some Birmingham University researchers, there are signs that re-shoring is starting to happen, that British businesses are  bringing it back home.
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In harm’s way

Posted in history, politics, Uncategorized by Andrew Curry on 21 December, 2013

Several things have come together in my mind recently which tell a story about the process of social change – first, an interview with the British radical politician Tony Benn in which he rehearsed his story about the process of change, second, the first screening in the UK of the PBS documentary about the Freedom Riders, shown in the US in 2011, and third the case of the Arctic 30 Greenpeace campaigners. Together, they seem to tell a story about the role in creating change of the body, the person, who puts themself knowingly in a place of danger. Tony Benn first. His quote goes like this:

“How does progress occur? To begin with, if you come up with a radical idea it’s ignored. Then if you go on, you’re told it’s unrealistic. Then if you go on after that, you’re mad. Then if you go on saying it, you’re dangerous. Then there’s a pause and you can’t find anyone at the top who doesn’t claim to have been in favour of it in the first place.”

Benn’s model of change, which I’ve blogged about before (though it seemed to new to the Guardian interviewer) seems to come from Schopenhauer via Gandhi. It’s a memorable idea, but it has a big gap in it: what is the mechanism by which  ideas move through the phases?

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Good and bad strategy

Posted in books, business, strategy by thenextwavefutures on 15 December, 2013

I read earlier this year Richard Rumelt’s book Good Strategy Bad Strategy, much acclaimed when it was published in 2011. And you can see why: it is lucid, well-writtem, and largely free of jargon, which already marks it out from the average business book. It also has a clear view of what strategy is (and what it is not), which is welcome, given how much the word is abused. And the business stories he tells illuminate his argument.

Rumelt is entertaining on the differences between bad strategy and good strategy – and I’ll come back to the bad strategy later. Good strategy, he says, is composed of a kernel of three elements (p77):

  • A diagnosis that defines or explains the nature of the challenge. A good diagnosis simplifies the complexity by identifying the critical aspects of the situations.
  • A guiding policy for dealing with the challenge.
  • A set of coherent actions that are designed to carry out the guiding policy.

In particular, I found his advice on diagnosis valuable. A good diagnosis “should replace the overwhelming complexity of reality with a simpler story, a story that calls attention to its crucial aspects.” This is, in effect, a sense making exercise. And a good strategic diagnosis does a second critical thing: “it also defines a domain of action.” Good strategy can then be built on a diagnosis that points to areas of leverage over outcomes. (more…)

The beat’s fashion sense

Posted in emerging issues, history by Andrew Curry on 5 November, 2013

A spot of social history. I was doing a little light research on the folk singer Wizz Jones after seeing him live, and came across this news report from the BBC’s Tonight programme from 1960. It’s about the steps being taken by the Cornish resort town Newquay to exclude a small group of beatniks from the town – making sure they couldn’t get work in the town or buy refreshments. What’s striking about this clip is the clothes and the hair: the unwanted Beats wouldn’t look out of place in any European or north American city now, 50 years later, whereas the clothes of everyone else place them firmly in the 50s and 60s.

It made me wonder what people are wearing now that won’t have dated in half a century.

For students of British journalism there’s also the sight of the reporter Alan Whicker, mostly remembered now as a parody of himself, forensically getting the leader of the Council to admit that the ban that he had organised had no grounds other than prejudice.

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The coming decline of London

Posted in cities, economics, housing, politics by Andrew Curry on 21 October, 2013

So, by way of a thought experiment: what if London is about to peak? The reason would be the way housing provision and housing regulation had destroyed the economic balance of the city, and there are some serious warning signs. Recently, there’s also been a wave of commentary on this. But first, let’s just roll back to the ’70s.
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